Quarterly Economic Survey
Q1 2025 Executive Summary
Domestic sales
A veritable mixed bag with service sector firms seeing their third consecutive quarter of sales growth, with an uplift of three per cent. However, the pain for manufacturers continues with a drop of seven per centage points. The sectors are split on orders with service sector firms looking healthy while manufacturers continuing to see their domestic order books decline.
Export sales
International sales were poor for both manufacturers and service sector firms who saw declines of nine and 10 per centage points respectively, the first time both sectors found themselves in negative territory since the end of 2023. Order books for overseas sales in both sectors are also in decline.
Employment
The last quarter of 2024 was a grim period for recruitment among manufacturers with employment down by 20 per centage points. Service sector firms recovered with a return to growth. Prospects going forward however look far healthier with the level of services and manufacturers looking to recruit having grown by four and 18 per cent respectively.
Investment
Another mixed set of results when it comes to training investment, which saw the service sector soar by an impressive 26 per cent while manufacturers witnessed a decline of two per cent. Capital expenditure however was a different matter, with both firms seeing investment spending increasing by seven per cent, a welcome boost given the dire scenes witnessed at the end of 2024.
Business confidence
The division between the manufacturing and service sectors could not be starker when it comes to expectations on profits. Service sector businesses are feeling strong with the number of firms expecting to grow profits up by nine points, the highest they have been since the start of the summer. However, the level of manufacturers anticipating improved profit levels fell by a disappointing seven per centage points to the lowest level seen since the height of the Covid 19 lockdowns seen five years ago.
Business costs and concerns
Given the impact the cost-of-living crisis has had on wage bills and the measures outlined in the Budget, both on the minimum wage and on Employer National Insurance Contributions, it should come as no surprise that taxation and labour costs are the two biggest headaches facing Yorkshire businesses.
The Quarterly Economic Survey is one of the longest running and widest scoping business surveys in the UK. It provides a useful picture of the state of business in the UK at a national, regional and local level.
Nationally, tens of thousands of businesses answer the survey, and this is the opportunity to be part of that.
We ask a mix of standing questions which give a perspective of how trade, labour, business confidence and other metrics have fluctuated. We also ask specific questions each quarter on hot topics that members are interested in, including AI, the impact of global conflicts and the Covid-19 pandemic.
From there, we present this data to local councils, combined authorities and it forms part of the picture that goes to national government with the wider British Chambers of Commerce.
On this page, you will find links to previous Quarterly Economic Surveys, to see the details of what businesses tell us.